Reason 6
![reason 6 reason 6](http://nl.pcmweb.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/thumbnails/980/70682/reason_6_overall_view.png)
The turnaround in global commodity prices is already reflecting in metal prices and profitability," noted Jefferies. "This is driven by better banks balance sheets (NPLs at a low already), a decisive upturn in the housing cycle and a build-up of pent-up demand in the auto industry where sales are at multi-year lows, partly due to recent supply chain issues. Financials, industrials, real estate, autos, materials and metals are the sectors that have witnessed higher profitability. The tide has now turned with FY20-22 earnings growth of 51%. Rising corporate profitability: Corporate profit growth was lacklustre from Financial Year 2011 to Financial Year 2020, growing by just 0.4%. Recently, the government also announced the formation of a 'bad bank" to help speed up the bad-loan resolution process further, while several large corporate insolvencies like that of Bhushan Steel, Essar Steel and Jaypee Infratech have seen resolutions. Moreover, banks are well funded which is why post COVID stress was lower. Currently, bad assets are at FY04 levels and as a new lending cycle likely gets underway, and the 'bad-bank' furthers the clean,” the report said. Bank lending quality has also substantially improved, which has been reflected with no major bad asset surge seen post the Covid waves. "Since then, the accelerated resolution programme through the bankruptcy regulations have helped to bring down the non-performing loans. Bad loans are down 60%: The bad asset cycle in India peaked in FY18 when gross non performing loans as a percentage of loans climbed above the 10% level to the highest since FY01. Incentives like stamp duty cuts in some states, and easy financing options have resulted in housing sales jumping over two-fold during the July-September 2021 period at 62,800 units across seven major cities. "The stage for the housing cycle revival has been set by improved affordability - an outcome of a) lower interest rates (at all-time lows - an off-shoot of the broader interest rate cycle) and b) prolonged phase of weaker pricing (partly on account of high positive real rates from 2014). Real estate sales and prices started picking up from the second half of 2020 while inventory levels have declines to 7-8 year lows. Since the period between 2012-2020 the housing sector witnessed an eight-year long slowdown, but 2021 has seen an improvement in both pricing and volume of transactions in both primary and secondary markets.
![reason 6 reason 6](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/tgM3iD4djl0/maxresdefault.jpg)
Here are the six key components that would drive growth: Housing is turning around: Historical data since 1996-97 suggests that India's housing up-cycles and downcycles typically last four six to eight years.
![reason 6 reason 6](https://cips.onlinecampaign.uk/six-reasons/img/reasons-banner.png)
The broader capex cycle is yet to turn but it usually follows the housing boom with a lag. ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Lodha, DLF, L&T, HDFC, ACC, Kajaria and Supreme some of the stocks that are likely to gain from this expected growth in India as housing, bad loans and corporate profitability cycle have turned positive, while corporate debt is at a cyclical low. NEW DELHI: An analysis of six key components of the economic cycle by global investment bank Jefferies suggests that conditions are ripe for a repeat performance of a 2003-10 style growth in India with fewer bad loan assets and high corporate profitability.